Wednesday 24 June 2026: The Andy Burnham Edition

Points 1 to 5 will have a look at Andrew Burnham, who will almost certainly be the next UK Prime Minister.

[1] Welcome to DNF, Mr. Andy Burnham! We trust you will have a good time, as long as you avoid doing something incredibly stupid (highly unlikely).

Source: Bloomberg

Andrew (Andy) Murray Burnham (not to be confused with tennis-tantrum-thrower Andy Murray, who is also British but has a temper unfit for politics) is a 56-year-old Liverpudlian (a person from Liverpool, someone from Manchester is called a Mancunian) with three kids and a wife, Dutch-born Marie-France van Heel, whom he married in 2000. He studied English at Cambridge before moving to London where he started his career working on trade magazines.

He previously served as the Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 to 2026. He also served as the MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017 and held several cabinet positions, including Secretary of State for Health from 2009 to 2010.

[2] Politically, Andy identifies as a socialist and is associated with the soft-left faction of the Labour Party. His political angle is that of a man of the people, looking out for the little guy and giving everyone a voice (which is literally every politician’s angle while campaigning. Once they get into office, the only company they entertain becomes people with more than a billion dollars, funny how that works).

[3] Within the Labour Party, Andy has been knocking for a while… in 2010 he ran on “aspirational socialism” (insert multiple expletives on our behalf) and came fourth out of five, losing to Ed Miliband.

In 2015, he stood again, with a more centrist pitch (make up your mind Andy) and launched his campaign at the headquarters of Ernst & Young, stating that entrepreneurs should be treated as much as heroes as the nurses.

He lost badly to Jeremy Corbyn (who the hell ran that campaign?).

[4] We will reserve our commentary on Andy until he has had some time to make a few mistakes. What we are more interested in is the following: political parties are very good at gauging societal appetite.

After all, in democracies, they win by predicting which message will resonate with voters.

Labour has chosen Mr. Burnham in an attempt to win an election and thwart Reform and the Greens. DNF, therefore, thinks it is valuable to posit what his character tells us about the UK population’s current psyche. To find out, we read through his X posts over the last few years.

Andy presents as a regular bloke, rather than a polished bureaucrat. He has a down-to-earth demeanor. He is deeply rooted in solidarity and empathy while being pragmatic and action-oriented. We have never met him (surprise) but he seems to be the boyfriend you break up with for being too nice.

The fact that Labour is backing a safe, “nice guy” appears to show that the Brits have realized that these extreme narrative candidates are not delivering what they expect. To continue our relationship analogy, they are indicating that they just got out of a toxic relationship with a wild guy and will now attempt to have a normal relationship for once, looking to settle down.

DNF, however, believes that they will soon learn that an edge and a bit of danger are often the marks of a good politician. If we were political commentators, which we are not, we would forecast that the Labour base will grow tired of Andy’s inability to get things done and bemoan his approach to foreign and internal affairs as being too soft within a few months.

What often happens to “nice guys” in politics is that they realize the difficulties of approaching the game (which it is) with an everyone can win attitude. Inevitably, a bully will come along and overpower their approach.

A safe bet indeed. What the UK needs right now? Let’s see.

[5] Andy reminds us of Jimmy Carter. In 1976, America was reeling from the Watergate scandal and the trauma of the Vietnam War. Carter presented as an outsider, the humble peanut farmer from Georgia. Carter smiled constantly, carried his own luggage (how brave) and promised voters “I will never lie to you”.

When America hit a wall of economic stagnation in 1979, coupled with Tehran’s capture of 52 American hostages, Americans wanted an assertive leader willing to strike back at Iran and take control of the domestic economic situation.

Carter’s nice guy attitude fell out of favor and Ronald Reagan, a Hollywood actor and strong communicator, bullied Carter’s record, framing his decency as incompetence. Reagan crushed Carter in the 1980 election (489 vs 49 electoral votes, a complete whitewash), with the latter winning just six states.

Andy’s team should start cultivating a tough-side narrative, or risk falling prey to the old adage of nice guys finish last.

[6] Americans love to spend money. In fact, personal consumption accounts for two-thirds of GDP and has grown roughly 2% over the past year. But America’s personal-savings rate fell to 2.6% in April, the lowest it has been since early 2008.

From 1970 to 2000, the personal-savings rate (the percentage of Americans’ income that is left after they pay taxes and spend money) averaged around 10%. Roughly a year ago, it was still above 5%. With annual inflation outpacing wage growth, households are running out of cash (we discussed Firstcash Holdings’ share price in our 4 June 2026 edition, which remains an interesting insight, have a look if you have not yet done so).

Oil prices are likely to remain high for many more months and a big fall in the stock market will further reduce willingness to spend. The American economy runs on materialism, but if cash runs dry, so too will corporate profits. Trouble, ladies and gentlemen, trouble.

[7] Yesterday, markets wobbled. The sell off started in Asia, with the KOSPI (the South Korean index we discussed a few editions ago which, at a point in time, was up 100% YTD) slipping 10% from its record high. The S&P and Nasdaq followed, down 1.44% and 3.3% respectively. Treasuries rose (stocks falling simply means there are more sellers than buyers. More sellers means more money out of equity, which needs to go somewhere. Treasuries are lower risk than equities, lower risk is safer, uncertain times brings a flight to safety).

We are at the end of Q2, which means traders might also be eager to lock in profits, causing further selling.

SpaceX closed at $156.11 after briefly dipping below its first traded price.

[8] Trump is losing his own party. The American Senate voted 50-48 to pass a war powers resolution which aims to curtail Trump’s as yet unadulterated freedom in taking military action in Iran without congressional approval.

The House of Representatives already passed it earlier this month. This specific resolution cannot be vetoed by the President. DNF agrees with the resolution, but it does signal further disarray in America to an Iranian regime already emboldened by their current situation.

[9] The US Congress is split into the House of Representatives and The Senate. Together, they are responsible for creating federal laws, declaring war (usually!), controlling the federal budget, and providing oversight of the executive branch.

The Senate is more exclusive, also known as the “Upper House” and has 100 members, two representatives from each of the 50 states. The term is 6 years (compared to the Presidency of 4 years), with the elections staggered so that about one third is up for election every two years.

The House of Representatives is the “Lower House”. Each state gets two senators, regardless of the population. House seats, on the other hand, are apportioned based on the population of each individual state. Large states, such as California, therefore have more representation. All representatives must run for election every two years.

Both houses must approve bills before they become federal laws, after which it is sent to the President to be signed or vetoed. In laymen’s terms, the House starts things and the Senate runs with them. For example, all bills that raise money must originate in the House, after which the Senate will vote on it. The House may impeach someone, the Senate tries the impeachments. The Senate also approves Supreme Court justices and presidential appointments.

[10] The CFA Institute released Level 1 results from the May 2026 session yesterday (Level 2 results tomorrow). The pass rate dropped 6% from the previous session to 39%. All 31,000 candidates wrote in person, at one of 524 locations in 425 cities in 115 markets. Fewer than one in five Level 1 writers go on to earn the charter.

(DNF, by the way, is a CFA charter holder. And a CA(SA), but who’s counting?).

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